(Don’t) Sound the Alarms 🚨
Up against the Alaskan Swamp, Sarah Palin fell short in her bid for a U.S. House Seat in the Special Election - but America First is better than okay, and set up for a big win in November - Analysis
As the 2022 primary election season draws to a close with New Hampshire set to conclude on September 13th, we can draw many things from our initial midterm referendum attempt against the Biden Regime - man, is there still much work to do before November 8th. Yesterday in Alaska, we saw the America First, Trump-endorsed candidate Sarah Palin, fall short in her bid at the Special Election to fill the vacant U.S. House Seat after the death of longtime representative, Don Young (R-AK) back in March. The Democrat winner, Mary Peltola is an Alaska native who ran on a “Pro Fish, Pro Life, Pro Worker Platform.”
But none of that matters.
What kind of slipped under the radar until the passing of Representative Young was a ballot measure from the 2020 election cycle in Alaska that changed the traditional style of voting (primary Rs vs Rs and Ds vs Ds then general election Rs vs Ds) that evolved in such a way as if the Jungle Primaries of California and Washington State mated and bred an election hybrid almost appropriately named Rank Choice Voting. The progressive measure passed by just 1.1% margin and can be easiest explained as:
Ranked Choice Voting
A "yes" vote supported making changes to Alaska's election policies, including:
requiring persons and entities that contribute more than $2,000 that were themselves derived from donations, contributions, dues, or gifts to disclose the true sources (as defined in law) of the political contributions;
replacing partisan primaries with open top-four primaries for state executive, state legislative, and congressional offices; and
establishing ranked-choice voting for general elections, including the presidential election, in which voters would rank the candidates.
“In which voters would rank the candidates.”
In an election season where everyone across the political landscape knew that Donald Trump would be coming for RINO do-nothing, Lisa Murkowski (R-sort of) after her killing of ANWR and impeachment vote with his primary challenger and rising political contender Kelly Tshibaka, the unexpected loss of Don Young allowed Trump to add Palin to his slate of America First candidates in the Last Frontier State. Of course, the swamp elements in Alaska were going to come up with a method that could potentially split the base and protect Murkowski in the general election and last night we got a taste of just what that looks like. In what seemed to be a favorable 2 for 1 deal, especially on the heels of the Save America Rally Trump held in July, we find ourselves back at the drawing board with 66 days to go until the general election.
The biggest take aways from the fallout that was this Special Election cycle is that we are going to have to explore additional avenues besides a massive Election Day turnout to solve the equation that is RCV. Overall, the Republican candidates secured over 61% of the total vote for the open House Seat. Head-to-head, Sarah Palin fell approximately 5200 votes short of the eventual winner, Peltola. And Nearly 185k voters came out on Election Day which forecasts an even better turnout rate possibility for the General Election in November.
The biggest issue between now and the fall will be which of the two largest vote getters (Palin and Republican businessman, who’s probably closer to an establishment pick Nick Begich) will bow out of the race so that the Republican Party can re-secure the seat. A lot of the pundits in legacy media and online have already spent a majority of the time since the polls closed saying nothing Republicans and finished in the midterms and how Trump’s blessing (at least in this case) has lost its luster.
However, both assertions can’t be further from the truth.
What we witnessed last night was the play that the Alaska swamp has implemented to protect compromised and RINO millionaire candidates like Lisa Murkowski not only in the 2022 midterm elections but in elections to come, eventually flipping the state due to its disaster of a new electoral process. Murkowski’s ties to special interests and the establishment can’t simply be primaried with a Donald Trump-endorsed pick, so until we can get Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) back on the ballot, this is the new front of this battle we will be fighting for at least the next election cycle.
The solution for this November is two-pronged and relatively simple:
• Nick Begich has to drop out of the race
• Sarah Palin must empty her war chest into ads and social media and hit the ground game twice as hard as she’s already hit it.
Nick Begich is hailed by most as a moderate and a “decent candidate,” who “would be fine in Congress.”
Bullshit.
Begich is not a populist, has ties to big business and most importantly - he’s not popular. He has zero social media presence, and my podcast (Steak for Breakfast) has been endorsed by a dozen more prominent political figures than his congressional race has. He trailed Sarah Palin by six percentage points overall and he’s not making that up in the next two months. There will be more Trump Rally’s and hype around Palin. It’s not the cleanest cut, but these are the facts.
Election cycles prior to 2016 is where Nick Begich could have snuck into a race, charmed a few soccer moms, played a few blue-collar dads and won an election in a red state where he would have served in, and voted with the larger apparatus, D.C. establishment for items like lowering taxes, combating Obamacare and find comprehensive solutions to the immigration crisis.
We aren’t there anymore.
Sarah Palin on the other hand has more work to do, but it’s compartmentalized. She needs to immediately dump as much of her war chest into social media and an ad campaign reminding Alaska of who she once was there, which was beloved - and do it fast. Palin needs to hit the ground game twice as hard as she hit it before the Special Election and really gather the pulse of what the constituents are feeling and what they need come November. Those two items are attainable; combine that with the legacy media tv spots she’ll do and the benefit she will have from at least one (most likely two) more Trump Rally’s between now and Election Day.
And if she can parlay that into some combined pressure from her campaign and Trump National to maybe have Begich bow out, then in a perfect world, it would be a slam dunk for America First.
Sarah Palin may not be the candidate we want at the moment but what she brings to the table is the candidate we need in Congress next year. She will pull no punches when it comes to going after Joe Biden, Merrick Garland and Alejandro Mayorkas for impeachment. She will provide experience and oversight at a level that most freshman Congressman cannot, and that element alone is nearly unparalleled regarding her experience. And she will never be a McCarthybro, that we can all rest assure. At one point, Sarah Palin polled at over 85% favorability rating between her time being a VP candidate and the Governor of Alaska.
If she can find a little bit more of that magic between now and November, then we can chalk up another U.S. House Seat to America First.